I don't think it will be any of the present top 4
We will know in exactly 6 months, by July 13
The question is not who will get the most votes when the Dems call their primary convention to order, and take the first vote, split in percentages less than a majority. The question is, will any of the 4 or 5 candidates, still standing, get enough votes (50%), on the first, second or maybe third ballot, to win it? Or, since that is not likely, who is the most popular... second choice of the most delegates? Who could win the third or fourth ballot ? That "compromise" candidate might easily be someone who has not even been a formal candidate but is just waiting in the wings being groomed to step up to the lectern and pretend to be surprised. I don't think that either of the two most powerful Democrat Machines, Obama's and the Clinton's, really like any of the leading candidates, but may settle for Bloomberg. So who might a dark horse, unexpected candidate be? Most Americans seem to believe in "fair play" and like to support underdogs, though that is no good reason to vote for a President. John Kennedy was an unlikely choice, back then, since he was a Catholic, and there had never been a Catholic President. He was chosen partially "because" he was a Catholic ... "to be fair". Barack Obama was also chosen, to a great extent, "because" he would be the first black President. Those "fair" minded Americans, especially the women, know that, unfairly, there has never been a female President and most women would vote for a woman just as 95% of blacks voted for Obama, because he was "one of them", even many who considered themselves to be Conservative. They felt it was only "fair" and would help balance those black/white scales which had a white thumb resting on one side.
I would not be surprised if both the Clinton Machine, idled on maintenance for three years, and the Obama Machine, still humming in neutral, have back-up plans .... Just in case their Convention is in a tangled knot after the first, second and third votes. A frustrated Convention might respond to a Hillary, Michelle, Oprah or other female nominee. Just imagine how difficult it would be for Democrat delegates to stand up against Hillary and Bill or Michelle and Barack. Both of these women have held the title of "The Most Admired" or "The Most Powerful" women in the world and would have the majority of women pulling for America's first female President. I know .... it may sound insane, but Dems haven't done anything sane in decades. Name me another candidate, besides Bloomberg, who might beat Trump, besides one of these world famous, most admired women... with the power and experience of their husbands standing behind them.
These two Machines are like two high powered race cars ready to pull out of the shadows up to the starting line but only one can be chosen. Could it be the extra tall, black haired, youngest driver who knows nothing about debating Trump or the U.S. Constitution, or the blond one sitting on two pillows who fell twice before getting behind the pink wheel? I'm not saying it is likely that either of them will Jump the line of qualifiers for this Main Event, after skipping the all the formalities and debates ... but it is possible. And if an unexpected financial crash or a Trump catastrophe happens, keep in mind the fact that Hillary won the popular vote against Trump last time. It was the Constitutional Electoral College which Trump won .... And will probably win again with a larger majority, barring a black swan event, before Nov. 3, beyond his control. I wouldn't want to be Trump, with his superior, attack mode ... having to debate any female.
Regardless whether a female is the Dem's Presidential Candidate or not, I predict that a woman will definitely be either that or their Vice-Presidential Candidate. It's the only way they can win.
Regardless whether a female is the Dem's Presidential Candidate or not, I predict that a woman will definitely be either that or their Vice-Presidential Candidate. It's the only way they can win.
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