Oct 17, 2018

Knowing Future Peril And Acting On It Aren't The Same

They Are One Track But Going In Two Opposite Directions

At the quarter-century mark of 1925, the great bull market was under way, and Benjamin Graham, then 31, developed what he later described as a ‘bad case of hubris.’   (Vain pride and self confidence. RB).  During an early-1929 conversation with business associate Bernard Baruch (about whom he disparagingly observed, ‘He had the vanity that attenuates the greatness of some men’), both agreed that the market had advanced to ‘inordinate heights, that the speculators had gone crazy, that respected investment bankers were indulging in inexcusable high jinks, and that the whole thing would have to end up one day in a major crash.’ Several years later he lamented, ‘What seems really strange now is that I could make a prediction of that kind in all seriousness, yet not have the sense to realize the dangers to which I continued to subject the Account’s capital.’ In mid-1929, the equity in the ‘Account’ was a proud $2,500,000; by the end of 1932, it had shrunk to a mere $375,000.” –  Frank K. Martin, A Decade of Delusions

Today's financial world appears to be a replay of the 1920's  hubris, a hundred years ago, just before the Great Depression, many knew was coming, but continued down the track...the wrong way.  

Knowing, with certainty, future peril, and acting on that knowledge, are not the same thing. They are one unmovable, railroad track ... but going in two opposite directions.  It is a common human liability to procrastinate taking inconvenient action in the face of imminent and certain danger. The list of people, organizations, and nations who have suffered great loss and destruction by, strangely, putting off actions which would have delivered them, is as long as from here to the Garden of Eden. Since my time and space are limited, I can't name too many of them , but you can find the notable ones in history books and the Bible. 

The Old Testament Jews knew exactly what God would do to them if they didn't obey His Holy Laws for them ... He had told them explicitly, but, though they claimed to believe his word, they ignored His words, and disobeyed Him anyway.... and then suffered the consequences ... for centuries of debasement, hate and suffering.

The Jews in Germany knew their friends and relatives were being shipped off by the Nazis to destinations unknown ... and they never heard from them again. They knew the hatred of the Nazis for Jews ... they were already suffering persecutions an confiscations of property. They knew, in the beginning, that they could sell out and leave the country, but they didn't. Like Belshazzar, they "saw the handwriting on the wall", but they were settled in their previous comfort zone, and when the Nazis came for them, they packed up  small "over night" bags and went meekly to the train station and were packed in cattle cars going to Auswitzch. When they could have taken a train, on that same track, to a port city and sailed for a better country. But very few did.

God sent prophets by the score to warn His people, you and me, what the future held for them and how they could be delivered from the horror of it, but they, and we, also have our delusional comfort zones. We put off the remedy, procrastinate, and neglect what we know will happen ...and then God's judgment falls upon us and we cry out to Him ... too late. Like God's people, the Jews, we, grafted in branches on the Jewish olive tree, awaken on the track going south to our own unspiritual, slave labor, death camps. 
Fortunately, we born again Christians have the Blessed Hope in Jesus which survives our foolish "hubris" and willful procrastination. Thank God our salvation is not in our keeping ... but in His. We would quickly lose it. But obedience benefits our present and our eternal future. Praise God.

"But he that heareth and doeth not, is like a man that, without a foundation, built an house upon the earth; against which the stream did beat vehemently, and immediately it fell; and the ruin of that house was great." Luke 6:49.

When you see a hurricane coming, batten down the hatches, drop your sails, or change course for a safe harbor. RB

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