- The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
- The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
- The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affair
My Comment: A perceptive eye, willing to lift itself up from studying the ground, will now see a huge flock of Black Swans ... darkening the sky like an impending storm hanging heavy over us.
One might illustrate the power of even a small Black Swan event by using a huge ledge of snow sitting high on the side of a mountain ready to begin sliding down, as an avalanche, on to the village below. At some point, a last snowflake adds the last bit of weight that tilts the balance ... and the avalanche is triggered. The timing of it is impossible to predict, but every wise and experienced person in the village knows it is going to happen ... and packs up and leaves the village with a warning to the others.
Though nobody can predict what The fatal trigger might be, here are some of the possible Black Swans which might trigger it.
- These points gleaned from InternationalMan Communique. RB
- Creditors dump US debt back into the US market
- Commodity prices spike
- A crash occurs in the stock or bond market
- A backlash occurs from countries sanctioned by the US
- European countries default on their debt
- The US dollar ends as the petrocurrency (causing a sale in US treasuries)
- The US or EU introduce significant tariffs, diminishing world trade
- Interest rates rise, as they did in 1929
- The "paper" gold and silver markets crash, when the shortage of physical gold and silver is revealed. Paper promises of gold & silver are over 100 times greater than its physical availability..
- Banks freeze or confiscate deposits
- FATCA (Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act) accelerates the demise of the US dollar as the default currency
- A credit collapse occurs (followed by dramatic inflation or hyperinflation)
- A war breaking out almost anywhere on Earth.
- Iran attacks Israel
- Israel preempts such an attack by an attack
___________________________________ What can you do? Be prepared mentally, physically and spiritually and leave the rest up to God. But that is about all you can do. RB