Sep 24, 2015

What Is A Black Swan Event?

Common Sense Commentary: Ten years ago I had never heard the term, "Black Swan". You never saw it in newsletters, blogs or other news sources. Times have changed; I read the term now at least once every week associated with present, critical  dangers arising out of a rapidly disintegrating world order. Nothing surprises me any more, no matter how radical or unbelievable it might be. Some of these unthinkable developments I call, "Evil Miracles". RB

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:
  1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
  2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
  3. The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affair


My Comment: A perceptive eye, willing to lift itself up from studying the ground, will now see a huge flock of Black Swans ... darkening the sky like an impending storm hanging heavy over us. 

One might illustrate the power of even a small Black Swan event by using a huge ledge of snow sitting high on the side of a mountain ready to begin sliding down, as an avalanche, on to the village below. At some point, a last snowflake adds the last bit of weight that tilts the balance ... and the avalanche is triggered. The timing of it is impossible to predict, but every wise and experienced person in the village knows it is going to happen ... and packs up and leaves the village with a warning to the others. 

Though nobody can predict what The fatal trigger might be, here are some of the possible Black Swans which might trigger it.

  • These points gleaned from InternationalMan Communique. RB
  • Creditors dump US debt back into the US market
  • Commodity prices spike
  • A crash occurs in the stock or bond market
  • A backlash occurs from countries sanctioned by the US
  • European countries default on their debt
  • The US dollar ends as the petrocurrency (causing a sale in US treasuries)
  • The US or EU introduce significant tariffs, diminishing world trade
  • Interest rates rise, as they did in 1929
  • The "paper" gold and silver markets crash, when the shortage of physical gold and silver is revealed. Paper promises of gold & silver are over 100 times greater than its physical availability..
  • Banks freeze or confiscate deposits
  • FATCA   (Foreign Account Tax Compliance Actaccelerates the demise of the US dollar as the default currency
  • A credit collapse occurs (followed by dramatic inflation or hyperinflation)
  • A war breaking out almost anywhere on Earth.
  • Iran attacks Israel 
  • Israel preempts such an attack by an attack
This is, of course, not a complete list of BLACK SWAN events which could trigger a series of critical failures leading to a monetary collapse and world-wide chaos.  
___________________________________ What can you do? Be prepared mentally, physically and spiritually and leave the rest up to God. But that is about all you can do. RB

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